Do seasonal weather patterns influence the property market? Certainly the perception is that there's more activity during spring and there is some truth in this.
The way to test this is to compare the number of sales in the various seasons. Ordinarily, over time the number of house sales during spring is no different to winter. However, sales during summer and the early months of autumn are significantly higher. February to April is the busiest period for agents.
So, what's behind the perception that the market comes alive during spring? The answer lies in supply. A month by month comparison of properties for sale over the last few years shows that housing supplies tighten during winter and then increase from September to November.
Ordinarily, REIWA data shows there is a boost in listings between June and September, although this may not be so great this year due to the sales market already being awash with properties following the downturn. Currently there are around 17,500 properties for sale in Perth, up from a more usual 14,000.
Typically, the increase in available properties over spring gives the impression that the market is busier. More properties for sale ensures more home opens, advertising and enquiries to agents. However, the extra sales that result from the increase in supply are usually more noticeable in the New Year, particularly from February to April.
Surveys reveal that most homebuyers take around six months to find a property they want. This means most homebuyers who start looking in September will likely find their new home by February.
The Reserve Bank reported last year that seasonality has little influence on Perth house price movements, accounting for just 14 per cent of the change compared with a national average of nearly 40 per cent.
However, the warmer weather coincides with year's end, a time when there is a lot of household relocation due to changes in employment. There is also the looming festive season and for many people the urgency to complete a relocation by Christmas, resulting in the traditional real estate rush in November.
The good news for homebuyers is that the arrival of spring means more choice. Although this window of opportunity can be narrow, with evidence showing that many new properties for sale in this period are sold by early December, particularly at the top end of the market.
With Western Australia's population growing at around 1,000 people per week, interest rates stabilising, house prices falling and plenty of stock on the market, it's reasonable to expect that the surplus properties in the system will start to diminish in the New Year as keen but hesitant buyers come back to a market that better suits them.
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